The Premature Coronation of Andrew Luck

 

Andrew Luck is overrated, overexposed and overvalued.

      On the surface my words seem blasphemous. You’re probably expecting that I have an ax to grind, or that I hate ESPN’s hype machine (which I do). The fact is: I agree with the Luck’s more ardent supporters when they say he is the best quarterback prospect to enter the NFL in the last 30 years. The problem is that the media and even decision makers around the NFL are projecting what Luck will be and not what he is.

During the off season, ESPN’s Mike Sando polled 26 NFL insiders, requesting them to place the NFL’s 32 starting quarterbacks into one of five tiers. Luck was placed in the top tier, breathing the same rarified air as Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady.

Luck is a talent no doubt, but has he done anything to suggest that he is currently on the same level as the league’s best? If we are using wins as our metric, Luck belongs. The Colts have won 69 percent of their games with Luck under center. Luck has also shown that he’s at his best in crunch time. His 82 Total QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime was fourth-best in the NFL, and his 10 game-winning drives since 2012 are the most of any quarterback. 

There’s no denying Luck’s talent and his accomplishments thus far have been impressive, it’s doubtful that any of his rookie counterparts could have fared as well on the Colts. While the choir sings his praises, there are still skeptics in the pews.

According to most advanced metrics, Luck’s performance as a passer has been marginal his Adjusted NetYards per Attempt (ANY/A) is 18^th over his first two seasons, finishing 16^th last year. To give perspective, Luck’s ANY/A over his first two years is identical to Josh Freeman’s.

Football Outsiders metric produces a similar result. Luck ranked 12^th in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement(DYAR) last season narrowly edging out Cam Newton, finishing behind Collin Kaepernick, Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson.

Luck has struggled throwing the ball down the field. Luck’s lack of accuracy during his rookie year was blamed on interim Head Coach Bruce Arians’ passing scheme, Luck’s defenders told us that he was forced to throw the ball down field by design, as a result his completion percentage(54 percent his rookie year) was low. 

Last year Luck’s completion percentage jumped 6 percent, to 60% in Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton’s short passing scheme. But Luck’s numbers on intermediate passes have not improved. On passes thrown 11-20 yards Luck completes 44 percent of his passes, with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

Redzone performance is a critical indicator of quarterback aptitude; again Luck’s numbers are marginal, completing 48 percent of his passes, throwing 22 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Compare Luck’s numbers with Cam Newton’s 48% completion, 26 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The numbers are nearly identical, and a brief look at Aaron Rodgers numbers-58% completion, 18 TDs and 2 interceptions (8 games) - show that neither Cam nor Andrew have arrived.

Why does nearly every talking head praise Luck, while ignoring the deficiencies in his game? The answers are as varied as the defenses he will face. Here are a few:

1.      The next big thing: For over a decade Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have carried the league, but the end is near. It’s natural for fans and the media to look to someone to take their mantle.

2.      Hype: Scouts have been buzzing about Luck for years. As a prospect Luck is far ahead of what anyone could expect from a second year quarterback. He’s a prodigy, his awareness in the pocket, ability to read defenses and throw from multiple platforms make him a combination of Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning.

3.      He looks the part: Standing 6’4, 229 Luck has the body type to play the position. He does everything scouts, coaches and television evaluators want and expect from a quarterback. If you were building a quarterback from scratch Luck has all the ingredients

4.      . Poor offensive line play: Occasionally, someone has the temerity to challenge Luck’s ascension. When they do, they are met with a secret service like protection machine, ironically claiming that Luck’s on field protection is inadequate.

 The Colts offensive line isn’t good but it’s far from the terrible unit that many have made it out to be. According to Pro Football Focus Luck faced pressure on 37.5 percent of his drop backs last year, tying him for 8^th most in the league. His line isn’t great but neither is Russell Wilson’s who faced pressure on 43.8% of his snaps or RG3 who faces it on 38.1. In comparison with his counterparts Luck doesn’t handle pressure well. His accuracy percentage under pressure.-which accounts for drops- ranks 20^th in the league at 56%.

Handling pressure and in particular identifying and dealing with blitzes are another indicator of quarterback performance. Luck completes 54 percent of his passes when facing a blitz.

Another flaw overlooked by the media is Luck’s tendency to hold onto the ball. When Luck holds the ball for 2.6 seconds or more his completion percentage drops from 66% to 52.8.

     I’m not here to bash Andrew Luck, he’s a phenomenal talent who will have a tremendous career. Our 4G culture demands immediate results but greatness takes time, patience and perseverance. Luck has a chance to get there but accelerating the process does a disservice to Luck and those that have gone before him.

Greatness takes time it can’t be rushed. Andrew Luck will probably get there but for now:

 If you want to crown him, crown him, but you’re letting him off the hook.

 

NFL Draft 2014: Johnny Manziel

Strengths

• a true dual-threat, showcasing a smooth, gliding running style in the open field
• excels at understanding angles and setting up the defender with subtle, coordinated upper and lower body fakes
• Manziel is able to get rid of the ball with a defender bearing down on him because of his quicker than average throwing motion
•  Excels in the short and intermediate passing games; Consistently puts the ball on target and within his receiver’s catch radius
• A master of improvisation; Where most quarterbacks would fail, Manziel finds a way to make a play.  He has “it,” and brings a skill set that is beyond logical/traditional evaluation methods.
• Has very big hands and grips the ball well on the move
• Exceptional game-day competitor -- rises to the occasion. Has a passion for the game. Played on the biggest of stages and revels in having his back against the wall
• Reverse spins and buys time in the pocket while continuing to scan the field
• . Record-setting and award-winning two-year production
• Ball often comes out of his hand wobbly. Throws an inconsistent spiral.

Weaknesses 

•  Questionable decision-making and ability to read defenses. Forces passes and throws too many up for grabs in traffic.
•  Struggles to accurately drop the long ball in a bucket; 
• Relied heavily on Mike Evans’ rare length to bail him out at times
•  Too many negative plays, he has an inflated opinion of his play-making abilities
• Is too reckless with the ball. He needs to get the ball out quicker, even if it means throwing it away sometimes.
•  Has an unorthodox body type with marginal height, rounded shoulders, an underdeveloped body and very big feet that almost look clumsy. 
• Feels pocket ghosts and often takes off running at the second flash of coverage.
• Cannot see over the pocket easily and almost never steps up into it, creating extra difficulties for OL coaches to coordinate blocking schemes and for offensive linemen to anticipate where the pocket will be.
• Has not developed a reputation as a worker or for doing the extras.   

Draft projection: Manziel looks to be a top five pick. It's unlikely he will slip that far unless theres a major misstep before the draft.  

Best Case: Fran Tarkenton
Worst Case: Doug Flutie 

Overall: One of the most polarizing prospects in recent memory, Johnny Manziel will generate headlines wherever he lands at the next level. His most ardent supporters believe that he will take the NFL by storm, much like he did college football’s Southeastern Conference the past two seasons. Many, on the other hand, believe his reckless nature both on and off the field make him a less than ideal candidate to be an NFL franchise quarterback

Ultimately, if Johnny Manziel wants to succeed as an NFL quarterback, he will have to learn to be more consistent beating teams from the pocket.  He will have to become more consistent reading defenses, going through his progression, beating blitzes by hitting hot receivers, improve his accuracy from the pocket by setting his feet and stepping into his passes, and lastly after he does take off and run, slide to protect himself.  If he is able to do those things, he can have a ton of success in the NFL.

 


 

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Super Bowl Preview: Everything you need to know about the Seattle Seahawks Defense

 Seattle Seahawks Defensive Primer

 Overview:The evolution of the NFL into a passing league has forced defensive architects to build front lines around explosive athletes with exceptional first-step quickness, speed and movement skills. The idea is to find a way to create constant pressure on the quarterback, forcing poor decisions and errant throws from the pocket.

In breaking down the Seahawks' lineup, it's obvious that Carroll has stockpiled "urgent" athletes to create a fierce pass rush capable of overwhelming opponents with speed and quickness. Pete Carrol simply asks his players to do what they do well. If you're a speed rusher, you get after the QB, if you can't play in coverage Caroll adapts and doesn't ask his players to do that. What you get is one of the most effective and versatile defenses in the NFL. 

 Strengths

•   Physicality: The Seahawks take on the passion and energy of their coach, no teams plays with as much passion and fury. Defenders fly to the ball and are in constant motion. what separates Seattle defense from others is its physicality in the secondary. 

• Ball Hawks:Carroll is quick to tell anyone within earshot that defensive football is all about creating turnovers. Carroll believes that takeaways are the deciding factor in most games, and he preaches going after the ball at every opportunity.

  From defensive linemen/linebackers attempting strips while gang-tackling to the aggressive play in the secondary, the Seahawks swarm to the ball with every intention of taking it away. Against the pass, in particular, Seattle does a great job of keeping vision on the quarterback and anticipating the direction of the throw. By keeping eyes on the ball, the Seahawks break quicker on throws, leading to more interceptions.(NFL.com)
  
   

Defensive Schemes 

The best place to start with the Seattle defense is its base defensive alignment. It’s essentially a 4-3 under. That means the defensive front four is shaded on the offense’s weak side and the Sam linebacker is walked up on the line of scrimmage. It’s a classic front that every team has in its playbook somewhere. Seattle lined up in this base alignment, the very first play of the season.(SB Nation)

 Seattle’s defense is talented, but it’s also rather eclectic: Tall and skinny, short and stout, Seattle’s defenders come in all shapes and sizes. As just one example, the Seahawks start 254-pound Chris Clemons at one defensive end spot and 323-pound Red Bryant at the other. But Bryant is a perfect two-gapper, and Carroll often places him directly across from an offensive guard or tackle to blow up running plays to the offense’s strong side.(Grantland)

Cover 3

 Cover 3 is traditionally a conservative defensive, but the cover ablity of the Sehawks corners allow them to be more aggressive. Both corners walk up to the LOS and press the outside receivers, while the underneath defenders play zone.

 

 

Weaknesses

Overly aggressive: The Seahawks lead the league in pass interference/defensive holding calls with 20. Their defense is also the most penalized overall in the NFL. The aggressiveness of the unit is also its greatest strength but its greatest weakness as well.

Run defense: 

In the first half of the season, Seattle’s generally formidable front seven encountered a recurring problem when opponents discovered that they could run against those fronts, especially in more obvious passing situations. The Seahawks have a deep and versatile line rotation, and the team’s interior linemen create consistent pressure up the middle by sliding against offensive linemen and shooting through gaps. However, the downside of this approach became apparent when those same lines started pushing Seattle’s defenders around — a task made easier when the Seahawks overpursued and forgot about their gaps.(SI.com)

In Week 9, Seattle gave up a season-high 205 rushing yards to a Tampa Bay team that had not yet won a game, and 158 of those yards to sixth-round rookie backup Mike James — whose single-game high outside of that game is 45 yards.

The Seahawks get caught and knocked off the ball on a 1st and 10.

The defense has no real shot to get this as the Rams' line just steamrolls into the second level. This is the first of the big runs by the Rams. One note here is that Brandon Mebane is not in the game on this play. Clinton McDaniel is at nose and McDonald is lined up as 3-tech. Mebane has definitely had his struggles over these last two seasons but Seattle doesn't appear to have his replacement on the roster. The big blocks wind up being the compressing of Red Bryant and McDonald together, opening a huge gap up the middle of the field.

Overall: Seattle's defense is obviously and elite defensive unit, however it will be interesting to see how they match up with the Broncos. Manning gets all the publicity but Knowshon Moreno and the Broncos' O-line may be the key.