Monday, August 25, 2014

The Premature Coronation of Andrew Luck



Andrew Luck is overrated, overexposed and overvalued.
      On the surface my words seem blasphemous. You’re probably expecting that I have an ax to grind, or that I hate ESPN’s hype machine (which I do). The fact is: I agree with the Luck’s more ardent supporters when they say he is the best quarterback prospect to enter the NFL in the last 30 years. The problem is that the media and even decision makers around the NFL are projecting what Luck will be and not what he is.
During the off season, ESPN’s Mike Sando polled 26 NFL insiders, requesting them to place the NFL’s 32 starting quarterbacks into one of five tiers. Luck was placed in the top tier, breathing the same rarified air as Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady.
Luck is a talent no doubt, but has he done anything to suggest that he is currently on the same level as the league’s best? If we are using wins as our metric, Luck belongs. The Colts have won 69 percent of their games with Luck under center. Luck has also shown that he’s at his best in crunch time. His 82 Total QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime was fourth-best in the NFL, and his 10 game-winning drives since 2012 are the most of any quarterback. 
There’s no denying Luck’s talent and his accomplishments thus far have been impressive, it’s doubtful that any of his rookie counterparts could have fared as well on the Colts. While the choir sings his praises, there are still skeptics in the pews.
According to most advanced metrics, Luck’s performance as a passer has been marginal his Adjusted NetYards per Attempt (ANY/A) is 18th over his first two seasons, finishing 16th last year. To give perspective, Luck’s ANY/A over his first two years is identical to Josh Freeman’s.
Football Outsiders metric produces a similar result. Luck ranked 12th in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement(DYAR) last season narrowly edging out Cam Newton, finishing behind Collin Kaepernick, Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson.
Luck has struggled throwing the ball down the field. Luck’s lack of accuracy during his rookie year was blamed on interim Head Coach Bruce Arians’ passing scheme, Luck’s defenders told us that he was forced to throw the ball down field by design, as a result his completion percentage(54 percent his rookie year) was low. 
Last year Luck’s completion percentage jumped 6 percent, to 60% in Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton’s short passing scheme. But Luck’s numbers on intermediate passes have not improved. On passes thrown 11-20 yards Luck completes 44 percent of his passes, with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Redzone performance is a critical indicator of quarterback aptitude; again Luck’s numbers are marginal, completing 48 percent of his passes, throwing 22 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Compare Luck’s numbers with Cam Newton’s 48% completion, 26 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The numbers are nearly identical, and a brief look at Aaron Rodgers numbers-58% completion, 18 TDs and 2 interceptions (8 games) - show that neither Cam nor Andrew have arrived.
Why does nearly every talking head praise Luck, while ignoring the deficiencies in his game? The answers are as varied as the defenses he will face. Here are a few:
1.      The next big thing: For over a decade Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have carried the league, but the end is near. It’s natural for fans and the media to look to someone to take their mantle.
2.      Hype: Scouts have been buzzing about Luck for years. As a prospect Luck is far ahead of what anyone could expect from a second year quarterback. He’s a prodigy, his awareness in the pocket, ability to read defenses and throw from multiple platforms make him a combination of Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning.
3.      He looks the part: Standing 6’4, 229 Luck has the body type to play the position. He does everything scouts, coaches and television evaluators want and expect from a quarterback. If you were building a quarterback from scratch Luck has all the ingredients
4.      . Poor offensive line play: Occasionally, someone has the temerity to challenge Luck’s ascension. When they do, they are met with a secret service like protection machine, ironically claiming that Luck’s on field protection is inadequate.
 The Colts offensive line isn’t good but it’s far from the terrible unit that many have made it out to be. According to Pro Football Focus Luck faced pressure on 37.5 percent of his drop backs last year, tying him for 8th most in the league. His line isn’t great but neither is Russell Wilson’s who faced pressure on 43.8% of his snaps or RG3 who faces it on 38.1. In comparison with his counterparts Luck doesn’t handle pressure well. His accuracy percentage under pressure.-which accounts for drops- ranks 20th in the league at 56%.
Handling pressure and in particular identifying and dealing with blitzes are another indicator of quarterback performance. Luck completes 54 percent of his passes when facing a blitz.
Another flaw overlooked by the media is Luck’s tendency to hold onto the ball. When Luck holds the ball for 2.6 seconds or more his completion percentage drops from 66% to 52.8.
     I’m not here to bash Andrew Luck, he’s a phenomenal talent who will have a tremendous career. Our 4G culture demands immediate results but greatness takes time, patience and perseverance. Luck has a chance to get there but accelerating the process does a disservice to Luck and those that have gone before him.
Greatness takes time it can’t be rushed. Andrew Luck will probably get there but for now:
 If you want to crown him, crown him, but you’re letting him off the hook.