Andrew Luck is overrated,
overexposed and overvalued.
On
the surface my words seem blasphemous. You’re probably expecting that I have an
ax to grind, or that I hate ESPN’s hype machine (which I do). The fact is: I
agree with the Luck’s more ardent supporters when they say he is the best
quarterback prospect to enter the NFL in the last 30 years. The problem is that
the media and even decision makers around the NFL are projecting what Luck will
be and not what he is.
During the off season, ESPN’s Mike Sando
polled 26 NFL insiders, requesting them to place the NFL’s 32 starting
quarterbacks into one of five tiers. Luck was placed in the top tier, breathing
the same rarified air as Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady.
Luck is a talent no doubt, but has he done
anything to suggest that he is currently on the same level as the league’s best?
If we are using wins as our metric, Luck belongs. The Colts have won 69 percent
of their games with Luck under center. Luck has also shown that he’s at his
best in crunch time. His 82
Total QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime was fourth-best in the NFL, and
his 10 game-winning drives since 2012 are the most of any quarterback.
There’s
no denying Luck’s talent and his accomplishments thus far have been impressive,
it’s doubtful that any of his rookie counterparts could have fared as well on
the Colts. While the choir sings his praises, there are still skeptics in the
pews.
According
to most advanced metrics, Luck’s performance as a passer has been marginal his Adjusted NetYards per Attempt (ANY/A) is 18th over his first two seasons,
finishing 16th last year. To give perspective, Luck’s ANY/A over his
first two years is identical to Josh Freeman’s.
Football Outsiders metric produces a similar
result. Luck ranked 12th in Defense-adjusted Yards Above
Replacement(DYAR) last season narrowly edging out Cam Newton, finishing behind Collin
Kaepernick, Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson.
Luck has struggled throwing the ball down the
field. Luck’s lack of accuracy during his rookie year was blamed on interim
Head Coach Bruce Arians’ passing scheme, Luck’s defenders told us that he was
forced to throw the ball down field by design, as a result his completion
percentage(54 percent his rookie year) was low.
Last year Luck’s completion percentage jumped
6 percent, to 60% in Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton’s short passing scheme.
But Luck’s numbers on intermediate passes have not improved. On passes thrown
11-20 yards Luck completes 44 percent of his passes, with 7 touchdowns and 5
interceptions.
Redzone performance is a critical indicator
of quarterback aptitude; again Luck’s numbers are marginal, completing 48
percent of his passes, throwing 22 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Compare
Luck’s numbers with Cam Newton’s 48% completion, 26 touchdowns and 3
interceptions. The numbers are nearly identical, and a brief look at Aaron
Rodgers numbers-58% completion, 18 TDs and 2 interceptions (8 games) - show that
neither Cam nor Andrew have arrived.
Why does nearly every talking head praise
Luck, while ignoring the deficiencies in his game? The answers are as varied as
the defenses he will face. Here are a few:
1.
The next big thing: For over a decade Peyton Manning and Tom
Brady have carried the league, but the end is near. It’s natural for fans and
the media to look to someone to take their mantle.
2.
Hype: Scouts have been buzzing about Luck for years. As a
prospect Luck is far ahead of what anyone could expect from a second year
quarterback. He’s a prodigy, his awareness in the pocket, ability to read
defenses and throw from multiple platforms make him a combination of Aaron
Rodgers and Peyton Manning.
3.
He looks the part: Standing 6’4, 229 Luck has the body type to
play the position. He does everything scouts, coaches and television evaluators
want and expect from a quarterback. If you were building a quarterback from
scratch Luck has all the ingredients
4.
. Poor offensive line play: Occasionally,
someone has the temerity to challenge Luck’s ascension. When they do, they are
met with a secret service like protection machine, ironically claiming that
Luck’s on field protection is inadequate.
The
Colts offensive line isn’t good but it’s far from the terrible unit that many
have made it out to be. According to Pro Football Focus Luck faced pressure on
37.5 percent of his drop backs last year, tying him for 8th most in
the league. His line isn’t great but neither is Russell Wilson’s who faced
pressure on 43.8% of his snaps or RG3 who faces it on 38.1. In comparison with
his counterparts Luck doesn’t handle pressure well. His accuracy percentage
under pressure.-which accounts for drops- ranks 20th in the league
at 56%.
Handling
pressure and in particular identifying and dealing with blitzes are another
indicator of quarterback performance. Luck completes 54 percent of his passes
when facing a blitz.
Another
flaw overlooked by the media is Luck’s tendency to hold onto the ball. When Luck
holds the ball for 2.6 seconds or more his completion percentage drops from 66%
to 52.8.
I’m not here to
bash Andrew Luck, he’s a phenomenal talent who will have a tremendous career.
Our 4G culture demands immediate results but greatness takes time, patience and
perseverance. Luck has a chance to get there but accelerating the process does
a disservice to Luck and those that have gone before him.
Greatness takes time it can’t be rushed.
Andrew Luck will probably get there but for now:
If you want to crown him,
crown him, but you’re letting him off the hook.
