Draft Position Podcast: Running Backs

Draft Position Breakdown: Running Backs

The Premature Coronation of Andrew Luck

 

Andrew Luck is overrated, overexposed and overvalued.

      On the surface my words seem blasphemous. You’re probably expecting that I have an ax to grind, or that I hate ESPN’s hype machine (which I do). The fact is: I agree with the Luck’s more ardent supporters when they say he is the best quarterback prospect to enter the NFL in the last 30 years. The problem is that the media and even decision makers around the NFL are projecting what Luck will be and not what he is.

During the off season, ESPN’s Mike Sando polled 26 NFL insiders, requesting them to place the NFL’s 32 starting quarterbacks into one of five tiers. Luck was placed in the top tier, breathing the same rarified air as Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady.

Luck is a talent no doubt, but has he done anything to suggest that he is currently on the same level as the league’s best? If we are using wins as our metric, Luck belongs. The Colts have won 69 percent of their games with Luck under center. Luck has also shown that he’s at his best in crunch time. His 82 Total QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime was fourth-best in the NFL, and his 10 game-winning drives since 2012 are the most of any quarterback. 

There’s no denying Luck’s talent and his accomplishments thus far have been impressive, it’s doubtful that any of his rookie counterparts could have fared as well on the Colts. While the choir sings his praises, there are still skeptics in the pews.

According to most advanced metrics, Luck’s performance as a passer has been marginal his Adjusted NetYards per Attempt (ANY/A) is 18^th over his first two seasons, finishing 16^th last year. To give perspective, Luck’s ANY/A over his first two years is identical to Josh Freeman’s.

Football Outsiders metric produces a similar result. Luck ranked 12^th in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement(DYAR) last season narrowly edging out Cam Newton, finishing behind Collin Kaepernick, Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson.

Luck has struggled throwing the ball down the field. Luck’s lack of accuracy during his rookie year was blamed on interim Head Coach Bruce Arians’ passing scheme, Luck’s defenders told us that he was forced to throw the ball down field by design, as a result his completion percentage(54 percent his rookie year) was low. 

Last year Luck’s completion percentage jumped 6 percent, to 60% in Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton’s short passing scheme. But Luck’s numbers on intermediate passes have not improved. On passes thrown 11-20 yards Luck completes 44 percent of his passes, with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

Redzone performance is a critical indicator of quarterback aptitude; again Luck’s numbers are marginal, completing 48 percent of his passes, throwing 22 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Compare Luck’s numbers with Cam Newton’s 48% completion, 26 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The numbers are nearly identical, and a brief look at Aaron Rodgers numbers-58% completion, 18 TDs and 2 interceptions (8 games) - show that neither Cam nor Andrew have arrived.

Why does nearly every talking head praise Luck, while ignoring the deficiencies in his game? The answers are as varied as the defenses he will face. Here are a few:

1.      The next big thing: For over a decade Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have carried the league, but the end is near. It’s natural for fans and the media to look to someone to take their mantle.

2.      Hype: Scouts have been buzzing about Luck for years. As a prospect Luck is far ahead of what anyone could expect from a second year quarterback. He’s a prodigy, his awareness in the pocket, ability to read defenses and throw from multiple platforms make him a combination of Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning.

3.      He looks the part: Standing 6’4, 229 Luck has the body type to play the position. He does everything scouts, coaches and television evaluators want and expect from a quarterback. If you were building a quarterback from scratch Luck has all the ingredients

4.      . Poor offensive line play: Occasionally, someone has the temerity to challenge Luck’s ascension. When they do, they are met with a secret service like protection machine, ironically claiming that Luck’s on field protection is inadequate.

 The Colts offensive line isn’t good but it’s far from the terrible unit that many have made it out to be. According to Pro Football Focus Luck faced pressure on 37.5 percent of his drop backs last year, tying him for 8^th most in the league. His line isn’t great but neither is Russell Wilson’s who faced pressure on 43.8% of his snaps or RG3 who faces it on 38.1. In comparison with his counterparts Luck doesn’t handle pressure well. His accuracy percentage under pressure.-which accounts for drops- ranks 20^th in the league at 56%.

Handling pressure and in particular identifying and dealing with blitzes are another indicator of quarterback performance. Luck completes 54 percent of his passes when facing a blitz.

Another flaw overlooked by the media is Luck’s tendency to hold onto the ball. When Luck holds the ball for 2.6 seconds or more his completion percentage drops from 66% to 52.8.

     I’m not here to bash Andrew Luck, he’s a phenomenal talent who will have a tremendous career. Our 4G culture demands immediate results but greatness takes time, patience and perseverance. Luck has a chance to get there but accelerating the process does a disservice to Luck and those that have gone before him.

Greatness takes time it can’t be rushed. Andrew Luck will probably get there but for now:

 If you want to crown him, crown him, but you’re letting him off the hook.

 

The Process is more Flawed Than Bridgewater

The name Mike Mamula still haunts Radio City music hall. A player that fails to reach his potential isn’t rare, but in the case of Mamula he exposed a flaw in the NFL’s draft apparatus. As we watch Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater’s freefall from overall number one pick to possible the second rounder, another flaw in the system is being exposed.

Mamula skyrocketed up draft boards after a spectacular combine. Before the combine, the Boston College defensive lineman was a projected third round pick. His numbers are still impressive, 4.58 40 yard dash, 25 bench press reps and a 38 inch vertical leap.

The rise of Mamaula has served as a cautionary tale to scouts, coaches and general managers, trust the film, don’t prioritize one day over an entire college career. Sadly the hive mind has been ensnared into a similar paradigm.  

Ten years of offensive leaning rule changes have maximized the impact of NFL signal callers. Teams know that if they want to reach the Promised Land they had better find Moses. Increased intensity has lead to increased scrutiny, with every word and  gesture serving as confirmation of a prospect’s ability to lead a franchise. 

A quarterback’s first big hurdle is the combine; from there its a series of interviews, then a heavily scripted pro day and finally private workouts. Each step in the journey is rotated within the collective NFL personnel zeitgeist and amplified by a rapidly increasing industry of draft “experts”.

The most important trait that a quarterback needs to show during the process is leadership. Teams want a man with the wits of Tyrion Lannister, with the swagger and looks of his brother Jamie. There’s a familiar refrain in scouting circles, they want a guy who commands the room. 

The rules of this gloried beauty pageant are simple, be perfect. Any hint of weakness will cause a grizzled scout to raise dreaded red flags. In reality the NFL’s powers that be need to raise a white one to the belief that a bad pro day or interview should supersede a player’s on field ability.

Teddy Bridgewater is far and away the most NFL ready quarterback in this draft class, he ran a pro style system at Louisville and called his own audibles and offensive line protections. Inside the football complex Bridgewater is everything the collective hive mind wants, he’s cerebral, tough and a film junkie.

However these practical football traits are ignored because Bridgewater isn’t able to play the process game as well as others. Bridgewater isn’t the best on camera he’s shy, soft spoken and lacks the wittiness required to impress a middle aged white men.

Before the combine the central critique of Bridgewater was his size.  Observers wondered if his slight frame would be able to endure the onslaught of punishment that NFL Sundays bring. Bridgewater responded by adding 15 pounds to his frame but raised his first set of eyebrows by refusing to participate in combine.  Teams want a strong alpha male who leads his team into battle; Bridgewater’s refusal gave the appearance that he wasn’t up to the challenge. In a league filled with rage and violence, apprehension is the greatest sin. 

Then there’s the infamous Pro day. Bridgewater looked ineffectual, inaccurate and intimidated. Part of his discomfort may have come from removing the throwing gloves he’d  grown comfortable with during his career. Next came reports of Bridgewater not “commanding the room” during team interviews.

Bridgewater is bad at the process, he’s an introvert in a process designed for extroverts. The process has made him look weak and timid. The antithesis of the field general we saw under center at Louisville.  On the field Bridgewater is confident, assertive and intelligent. Perhaps the football field does for Bridgewater what a phone booth did for Clark Kent.

From his first snap as a true freshman, Bridgewater displayed a poised and acumen that belied his years. During his career Bridgewater missed one start; he entered the same game, nearly leading his team to victory, despite a fractured wrist and sprained ankle.

 Does an interview or throwing in shorts change the kind of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be? The NFL powers that be have replaced the combine with the process. It’s become a beauty pageant, just as Mike Mamula was coached up on how to run the 40, the quarterbacks in this class have been taught the right things to say to make draft evaluators swoon. Like any job, a good interview doesn’t necessarily a good employee make. Any employer with his salt would look at the applicant’s resume.  When Teddy Bridgewater’s potential employers check his resume, they will find the most pro ready quarterback in the draft, one who played in a pro style system, responsible for calling his line protections and audibles.

Off the field Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t look or sound like an NFL quarterback. However every player drafted Thursday night will have their success defined by what they do on the field not off and that’s where Teddy Bridgewater excels.

Five Takeaways From the Fargo TV Pilot

Five Takeaways From The Fargo Pilot

1. Billy Bob Thornton is awesome:  Thornton plays a malevolent genie of sorts, walking through Fargo’s frozen tundra ;leaving mayhem and destruction in his wake.  Every moment

Thornton is on the screen is imminently viewable but the last scene he appears in is his most memorable. His character is stopped by a police officer and subverts a common trope in a delightful way.

2. Fargo is a weird mix of contrasts: The show struggles to gain its footing early on,which makes me thankful that FX gave the pilot extra time. Fargo is the guy at the circus spinning plates on a stick, and like the guy at the circus, there are times where things are shaky and it doesn’t look like he will pull it off.

The show juggles comedy and over the top violence. It’s a tightrope that Fargo walks well, I found myself laughing aloud several times when heinous acts of violence occurred.

3.Fantastic Casting: Besides Thornton, there’s Martin Freeman who plays an everyman loser named Lester Nygaard . Freeman plays every moment as straight as a razor, intensifying his comedic effect. Allison Tolman’s portrayal as a somewhat goofy but ambitious Sheriff's deputy is the heart of the show and true story driver. Tolman is a relative unknown but she won’t be for long, she plays her character with a vulnerability that makes it impossible not to care about her character.

4. Anti hero’s journey: This type of character arch has almost become cliche, the down on his luck loser, marginalized by society(especially his wife) finally reaches his breaking point and turns to a life of crime. Fargo lays it on a bit thick in this area, We are beaten over the head with just how anemic Lester Nygaard is. Another issue is, Nygaard’s motivation’s don’t feel authentic. Yes he’s crapped on by life, and his wife is a shrew but we weren’t given enough motivation to payoff a brutal stabbing. On the flip side, tropes are tropes for a reason, because they work.

5. Its true to the source material: No matter how well done any adaptation is, it will have 

its critics, especially when the source material is as beloved as Fargo’s. The show doesn’t 

try to mimic the movie so much as it stands alongside it.  It nails the tone of a Coen 

Brothers flick, while charting new ground at the same time.

2014 NFL Draft Profile: Zach Mettenberger

What I love: At 6'5, 244 Mettenberger fits the NFL prototype for a pocket passer. One of the strongest arms in the draft. Able to drive the ball down the field through tight windows. Played in a pro style system at LSU, where he had good chemistry with future pro receivers. Good ball placement on short to intermediate throws.

What I don't: Has some mobility but is far from a quick twitch athlete. A sitting duck in the pocket. Lacks an internal clock within the pocket which will causes him to take unnecessary sacks. Doesn't always reset when the pocket collapses. Character concerns stemming from a sexual battery conviction. Recovering from a torn ACL.

Pro Comparison(s): Drew Bledsoe, Phillip Rivers

Bottom Line: Mettenberger is a second day draft pick with loads of potential, however I'm always  wary of quarterbacks that lack a natural feel for the pocket.

NFL Draft 2014: Johnny Manziel

Strengths

• a true dual-threat, showcasing a smooth, gliding running style in the open field
• excels at understanding angles and setting up the defender with subtle, coordinated upper and lower body fakes
• Manziel is able to get rid of the ball with a defender bearing down on him because of his quicker than average throwing motion
•  Excels in the short and intermediate passing games; Consistently puts the ball on target and within his receiver’s catch radius
• A master of improvisation; Where most quarterbacks would fail, Manziel finds a way to make a play.  He has “it,” and brings a skill set that is beyond logical/traditional evaluation methods.
• Has very big hands and grips the ball well on the move
• Exceptional game-day competitor -- rises to the occasion. Has a passion for the game. Played on the biggest of stages and revels in having his back against the wall
• Reverse spins and buys time in the pocket while continuing to scan the field
• . Record-setting and award-winning two-year production
• Ball often comes out of his hand wobbly. Throws an inconsistent spiral.

Weaknesses 

•  Questionable decision-making and ability to read defenses. Forces passes and throws too many up for grabs in traffic.
•  Struggles to accurately drop the long ball in a bucket; 
• Relied heavily on Mike Evans’ rare length to bail him out at times
•  Too many negative plays, he has an inflated opinion of his play-making abilities
• Is too reckless with the ball. He needs to get the ball out quicker, even if it means throwing it away sometimes.
•  Has an unorthodox body type with marginal height, rounded shoulders, an underdeveloped body and very big feet that almost look clumsy. 
• Feels pocket ghosts and often takes off running at the second flash of coverage.
• Cannot see over the pocket easily and almost never steps up into it, creating extra difficulties for OL coaches to coordinate blocking schemes and for offensive linemen to anticipate where the pocket will be.
• Has not developed a reputation as a worker or for doing the extras.   

Draft projection: Manziel looks to be a top five pick. It's unlikely he will slip that far unless theres a major misstep before the draft.  

Best Case: Fran Tarkenton
Worst Case: Doug Flutie 

Overall: One of the most polarizing prospects in recent memory, Johnny Manziel will generate headlines wherever he lands at the next level. His most ardent supporters believe that he will take the NFL by storm, much like he did college football’s Southeastern Conference the past two seasons. Many, on the other hand, believe his reckless nature both on and off the field make him a less than ideal candidate to be an NFL franchise quarterback

Ultimately, if Johnny Manziel wants to succeed as an NFL quarterback, he will have to learn to be more consistent beating teams from the pocket.  He will have to become more consistent reading defenses, going through his progression, beating blitzes by hitting hot receivers, improve his accuracy from the pocket by setting his feet and stepping into his passes, and lastly after he does take off and run, slide to protect himself.  If he is able to do those things, he can have a ton of success in the NFL.

 


 

NFL Draft 2014: Derek Carr scouting report

Strengths

• Very good arm strength, can make all of the throws
• Throws with excellent velocity, the ball jumps out of his hand.
• Known for his maturity, work ethic and leadership
• Throws a great deep ball.
• Experienced, a three-year starter
• Athletic, can evade the rush or escape when pocket collapse
• Record-breaking production
• Can alter his platform and throw on the move or off his back foot
• Throws come out on time and accurately
• Excellent accuracy on short and intermediate routes, can consistently "throw guys open" with tight defensive coverage.

Weaknesses 

•  Played in offense that relied heavily on quick wide receiver screens.
• Bad habit of falling back on his back foot at times when he throws, missing on deeper passes.
• At times, appears skiddish facing the pass rush, not setting his feet to throw resulting in errant throws.
• Played almost exclusively from shotgun, do not see a lot of drops and playing from under center.
• Production is inflated by spread offense and porous Mountain West Conference defenses
• Stares down his intended target. He needs to improve eye discipline.

Best Case: Tony Romo

Worst Case: Jeff George 

 Projection: Carr is an intriguing prospect, from the head up he's a coaches dream, however I'm very concerned a his pocket presence. I think Carr will struggle playing in a muddied pocket at the next level, which will hinder his success.